Spartans vs Wolverines (and the winner is.....)

The pre game hype is building to a crescendo…there’s a lot of frantic conversation on Sports Talk radio…but who will win the game?

The game between Michigan and Michigan State is becoming a rivalry again. Certainly, it’s more entertaining and more spirited than when Brian Ellerbie or Tommy Amaker were coaching in Ann Arbor. And, as it relates to the importance of Basketball on the Michigan campus, the Wolverines are sending a big message. They renovated Crisler (which had become antiquated)…invested in a practice facility (which was conspicuously missing)…and, for his part, John Beilein’s program has consistently gotten better each year, especially with the addition of Bacari Alexander to Beilein’s staff. Let’s just say, Alexander’s presence can be felt as it relates to the improved intensity of the Wolverine Defense and Rebounding.

But, in all of the pre game conversation, I have heard very little as it relates to statistics…meaningful statistics! In the end, statistics don’t play the game but they are a barometer earned over 18 games and so…the statistics are meaningful…and they are measurable. What can’t be measured, of course, is game strategy and who will be forced to change their game strategy and play ‘catch up’. In other words, playing from behind in a competitive game such as this, is a game changer so…the team who gets the early lead will have an opportunity to build upon that momentum and close the deal.

In that context, the game is being played in Ann Arbor…so Home Field advantage goes to Michigan which means...Michigan has the opportunity to get out to a fast start!

But let’s look at the ‘key’s statistics…first offensive stats: (I apologize in advance for the formatting mis alignment)

                                                                                ‘M’                                         Spartans

·         3 Point Attempts                              24PG                                     15PG

·         3 P as % of ttl shots                         31%                                        21%

·         3 P conversion %                              24.8                                        36.3*

·         Field Goals %                                     46%                                        48%*

And, defensive stats:

·         Rebound Margin                              2.7                                          10.1*

·         Steals                                                    5.0                                          8.3*

·         Blocks                                                   2.4                                          4.9*

·         Defensive FG%                                 41.2                                        37.9*

*Advantage

3PA: Michigan is slowly becoming more of an ‘inside-out’ team but 3 point shots continue to dominate their game. The Wolverines are taking nearly 30% of their shots from beyond the Arc! That’s a lot. In their most recent game at Iowa City the Wolverines took 31 shots (37%) outside the Arc compared to Iowa who shot  modest 12 shots from beyond the Arc. More importantly the Wolverines only converted 8 of 31 for a meager 25% from beyond the Arc and lost that game 75-59. No margin for error with the Three!

The ‘Three’ is a great weapon but it’s no different than throwing vertical in football. A 50 yard vertical pass is appreciably lower percentage than a 15 yard crossing pattern. Sometimes it’s just better to get 3.4 yards per attempt and move the chains (to mix metaphors). But, if Michigan is hot from beyond the Arc…then look out…otherwise, a missed ‘Trey’ converts to a ‘long rebound’ on a fast break going the other direction.

Inside the Paint: I don’t have the luxury of charting ‘Points in the Paint’…but it would be fair to say, the Spartans are leading in that category, too. Why? The Spartans have gone to the FT stripe 23 times per game…while Michigan is only getting to the stripe 15.6 times per game. So given UM’s propensity to shoot the Three and given the few times the Wolverines are getting to the Stripe…the logical conclusion is Michigan is settling for the ‘outside jumper’ and not exerting their will inside the paint.

I won’t take the time to go thru the Defensive stats individually because I think the Defensive stats are self explanatory. Given the fact both teams have played 18 games overall and approximately one third of the Big Ten schedule is in the record books…the Spartans have demonstrated a discernible edge in ‘key’ Defensive statistics.

But, will the statistical edge translate to a victory for the Spartans in Ann Arbor or will Michigan hang a ‘W’?

The ‘key’ stat in favor of Michigan is Home Field Advantage. If the Wolverines get off  to a ‘Fast’ start in front of their home crowd then look out…but if Michigan rapidly fires ‘Threes’ and gets into foul trouble as they did in Iowa City…thereby enabling Iowa to go to the stripe 28 times…then Michigan will take a step backward tonight.

What do I think?

Just like football…on average, I think Defense trumps Offense…so, advantage Spartans…but it’s the Big Ten…it’s a street fight…and the team most prepared to run a half Marathon tonight will win!