In most polls, the Wolverines are ranked #20…while the Buckeyes are ranked #4…and the Spartans are ranked #10. But if you refer to the RPI rankings you see a little different story: the Spartans are ranked #5…Buckeyes are ranked #9…whilst Michigan is ranked #18. Needless to say, the rankings are a bit arbitrary but there is a method to the RPI rankings. The RPI is based less on popularity vote and more on methodology. The methodology, while not perfect, is based upon key stats such as: Overall record; strength of schedule; wins & losses vs Top 25, etc…but it also takes into consideration more nuanced stats…such as Defense.
I won’t spend a lot of time writing a long preview of Michigan game in Columbus or spend emotional energy predicting a winner…but while Michigan enjoys a winning percentage their Defensive stats are ‘troublesome’. As it relates to the ‘key’ Defensive stats, specifically: Defensive FG%...Blocks…Steals…and Rebound Margin…Michigan is significantly behind their top competitors in the Big Ten based upon Division 1 Rankings of 338 teams. Here’s a look:
· Defensive FG%
o #2 Wis 36.3%
o #11 MSU 38%
o #34 OSU 39.3
o #140 UM 42%
· Blocks per game
o #44 MSU 9.5
o #137 Wis 5.5
o #213 OSU 3.0
o #314 UM 2.4
· Steals per game
o #43 OSU 8.2
o #46 MSU 8.1
o #285 Wis 5.5
o # 314 UM 4.9
· Rebound Margin per game
o #4 MSU 9.5
o #12 OSU 7.5
o #69 Wis 3.9
o #121 UM 2.3
Bottom line: Michigan ranks last amongst the Top 4 Big Ten teams in each ‘critical’ Defensive category (based upon national rankings)…in fact UM ranks lower than 100 in Defensive FG% & Rebound Margin…and lower than 300 in Blocks per game and Steals per game. So, as the Big Ten moves into the second half of the season…those stats do not bode well for the Wolverines.
Game time is 1:00 at Value City Arena…and weather is not expected to be a factor (said with a smile)!
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