In spite of the odds (the Spartans are 9.5 point underdogs)…the Spartans will reluctantly take the field against the ‘mighty’ Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night!
I say reluctantly (with a smile) because according to the ‘so called’ analysts…the Spartans don’t have a chance. I guess the analysts are getting all their information from ‘On-Wisconsin.com’ because according to the analyst, the Spartans will be unable to stop Russell Wilson and moreover, they don’t have any chance of stopping Montee Ball…do they? Let’s be fair…both Wilson & Ball are good players…but come on, I guess the analyst didn’t watch the first meeting and/or forgot to look at the stats…or I guess it doesn’t matter because they have already anointed the Badgers as Champions!
But, I don’t listen to the Analysts because they don’t do their homework, and in this case, I don’t intend to bypass the numbers because the numbers tell the truth…so let’s take a look.
To start, the Spartans had the best record in the Big Ten for the second consecutive year and the analysts have also conveniently forgotten the Spartans beat Wisconsin in the first meeting and dominated the game when you consider the Badgers were trailing 31-17 with only 8 minutes remaining. By the way, the Spartans have won 3 of the last 4 and each of the last two against Wisconsin. That’s OK…the Spartans don’t need the love of the public or the love of the analysts. The Spartans will play the game as they always do…and simply let the pads do the talking!
I’m not a fan of revisionist history…so let’s take a look at the ’actual’ stats compiled during the game on Oct 22.
The game started with the Spartans ‘relinquishing’ 7 points to the Badgers 4 minutes into the game. It was a nice drive so give the Badgers credit. Then, on the first series after the ensuing Kick Off, the Spartans committed an unlikely fumble by ‘sure handed’ Edwin Baker in their Red Zone. Not a good spot or a good time for a fumble. From that spot, let’s just say the Spartans graciously granted the Badgers another 7 points and the Badgers lead 14-0 with only 7:12 off the clock. Good for Wisconsin, but the score was less about Badger execution and more about Spartan miscues. At any measure, the score was 14-0 but that was the end of Badger scoring for the next 37 minutes.
In the 2nd Qtr the Badgers lost yardage and were ‘pushed back’ to the two yard line and on the next play… in the face of heavy pressure, Russell Wilson was flagged for Intentional Grounding from the End Zone and the Spartans got 2 points for a Safety.
The Spartans scored the next 23 unanswered points resulting from four different scores: a ‘Safety’…a 34 yard TD run by Keshawn Martin…a 35 Yard pass from Kirk Cousins to BJ Cunningham…and a blocked punt that was recovered in the End Zone for a TD by Bennie Fowler (Nice job Spartan Special Teams). Bottom line, the Spartans sprinted to a commanding 23-14 halftime lead. Carving off 30+ yards at a crack…does that translate to superior Spartan team speed? You be the judge!
In the 3rd Qtr, Wisconsin finally got on the board for the first time since the 7:42 mark of the first half and kicked a FG at the 8:29 mark of the 3rd Qtr. What does that mean? It means the Badgers hardly came out for the Second Half with guns blazing! After the FG, the score was 23-17 in favor of the Spartans! Then back come the Spartans!
To start the 4th Qtr, the Spartans scored on a pass from Cousins to Keshawn Martin and then Cousins converted a Two Point conversion on a pass to BJ Cunningham and the score was 31-17 in favor of the Spartans. Along the way the Spartans blocked a FG nevertheless the Badgers scored at the 8:10 mark…and finally scored again at the 1:26 mark of the 4th Qtr while the Spartans were deployed in ‘Prevent Defense’. Game tied 31-31.
And, you know the rest…with 1:26 remaining, the Spartans methodically moved the ball down the field…the Spartans had the Badgers ‘back pedaling’ in Prevent Defense…and then the Spartans methodically threw up the ‘Rocket’ for a game ending TD. Luck? You create luck. The Spartan line had to block…Cousins had arguably and hour to set up and throw the pass…and three receivers stood ready in the End Zone. But, let’s not forget the placement of the pass. If three Spartan receivers (Cunningham, Sims & Nichol) were intended to form a ‘Bullseye’ in the End Zone…then the ball was placed ‘spot’ on target…directly in the middle of the Bullseye. Luck? How many teams could efficiently set up the play and methodically execute with seconds clicking off the clock?
Anyhow, as it relates to time of possession, the Spartans allowed the Badgers a total of 28 minutes and considering that Wisconsin had the ball for the first 7:12 of the 1st Qtr…it means the Badgers only had possession for approx 21 minutes for the balance of the game.
Prior to this game, the Badgers were averaging 50.17 points per game and more than 523 yards per game but the Badgers were discombobulated by the Spartan Defense. The Spartans forced Russell Wilson into 6 huge mistakes…a Safety…3 Sacks…and two Interceptions.
Are the Interceptions important? Yes indeed. Considering that Russell Wilson had only thrown 1 Interception thru the first 6 games but was forced to throw two Interceptions under heavy pressure is huge statement. Moreover, the Spartans blocked a FG and a Punt. And, in summary, the Spartans held the Badgers to 19 points less than their 50 point average (on that date) and 80 yards less than their 523 yard average (on that date) and the Spartans did that without William Gholston their prodigious 6’7” 280# Defensive End. I may have ‘green & white’ lenses but, that hardly sounds to me like a Spartan team that got pushed around by the Badgers. And, oh by the way, the Spartan have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Wisconsin including the last two. 10 point Underdogs? Really???
Here are the Stats:
Off Plays: Wisconsin 62…Spartans 63
Rushing: Wisconsin 220…Spartans 109
Passing: Wisconsin 223…Spartans 290
Ttl Off: Wisconsin 443…Spartans 399
Ints’: Wisconsin 2…Spartans 0 (Spartans forced Russell Wilson into 6 huge mistakes…a Safety…3 Sacks…and two Int’s)
Penalties: Wisconsin 6-40…Spartans 0-0 (not bad for a so called ‘dirty team’
Possession: Wisconsin 28:29…Spartans 31:31
*Indicates disadvantage
Bottom line:
A lot will be written about Russell Wilson and his ability to ‘break down’ Defenses but, let’s be honest…the Spartans have played an impressive cadre of mobile (and elusive) QB’s including Braxton Miller (OSU), Denard Robinson (UM) and Taylor Martinez (Nebraska) and the advantage has gone to the Spartan Defense each and every time. As it relates to Defensive Deployment, the Spartans have filled the gaps and sealed the edges thereby limiting the opportunities for ‘break away’ QB’s (to ‘break away’) and in so doing, the Spartans have piled up an enormous number of sacks…tackles for loss…Interception…and stopping the run.
Want an example? The Spartans held Denard Robinson (and Devin Gardner) to 27 yards rushing (Robinson 42 & Gardner minus -15)…including 7 sacks… while limiting Robinson to 9 completions on 24 attempts (37%) and 1 interception. Want another example? The Spartans held Braxton Miller (and Joe Bauserman) of OSU to (-43…that is minus 43) yards rushing…9 sacks and 1 Interception. Moreover, the Spartans held OSU to a meager 35 rushing yards. Let me get this straight. In three consecutive weeks, the Spartans got 19 sacks versus Ohio State (9), Michigan (7) and Wisconsin (3)…so is that an anomaly or a great Defense?
Are we supposed to think the Spartans will suddenly be incapable of getting to the Quarterback? Are we supposed to think that Russell Wilson will suddenly ‘run wild’ when others couldn’t? Here’s a thought. The Spartans only got 3 Sacks vs Wisconsin compared to 9 & 7 for OSU and UM respectively. But, William Gholston missed the Wisconsin game but he will return for this game. All I can say is…look out Russell Wilson!
By the way, I haven’t noticed the ‘so called’ experts point out any of these facts…do they read the stats before they make their predictions? Presumably not!
As it relates to Wisconsin running game, everyone is raving about Montee Ball and, to be fair, Montee Ball is a gifted running back but, he didn’t frighten the Spartans in the first meeting and he won’t frighten the Spartans in the Championship game. In the first game, the Spartan ‘D’ filled the ‘Gaps’ and limited Montee Ball to 115 yards (or 20 yards below his average).
So, as we approach this game…let’s remember, the Spartans are the #3 ranked Defense in the country for a reason (only Alabama and LSU rank higher)…they only allow 100 yards rushing per game and when you add the Spartans ‘Big & Fast’ Defensive secondary who allow less than 164 yards per game…it’s hard to fathom the Spartans are 10 point Underdogs.
Is it possible to win by 10? Of course. It’s possible for either of these teams to win by 10 points but installing the Badgers as 10 point favorites is an incredible lack of analytics and an incredible measure of disrespect in my mind. Wisconsin is a fine team…give them credit…but historically they have proven they do not comfortably wear the mantel of ‘Road Warriors. They dominate in their domain in Madison but falter on the road…and where is this game being played? The game will be played on the road in Indianapolis and the Spartans are the Home team. And, did I mention the Spartans have won 3 of the last 4 games including the last two?
I won’t predict the score and I won’t predict the winner…but the numbers speak for themselves and in that context the Spartans are the statistical favorites to win the ‘first ever’ Big Ten Championship game! Enjoy the game…I’ll be there!
Thanks for reading!
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