Big Ten Basketball (it's not over until.....)

After two months of grinding Big Ten Basketball, the season is nearly over but if you think the last two games have little impact…then Lee Corso would say…not so fast my friends!

 A lot can happen over the next two games with the prize being a share of the Big Ten title and/or better seeding for the NCAA tournament. For example, Ohio State and Michigan could possibly tie the Spartans for the Big Ten title but they could also fall in the other direction.

Ohio State and Michigan could slide to third and Wisconsin could take over sole possession of second place. Purdue could rise all the way from 6^th to second . At the very minimum, a lot of Chess pieces could be moved around the board before the end of the season. Here’s a look at the Top 6 teams:

·         Spartans              13-3

·         Ohio State           11-5

·         Michigan              11-5

·         Wisconsin            10-6

·         Indiana                 9-7

·         Purdue                 9-7

Given the cluster of teams, there is only one certainty: the Spartans are ensured of at least a share of the Big Ten title but if the Spartans win one more game, they will grab an undisputed Big Ten title and in that case, there will be a mad scramble for the next 5 spots which will have a major impact on NCAA seeds.

I scripted a few possibilities. I don’t recommend you read all of the variables because it’s not exactly entertaining (pondering what ifs) but you might be surprised by the possibilities:

·         If Ohio State and/or Michigan win out, they would share the Big Ten title with the Spartans assuming the Spartans lose both of their remaining games

·         If Wisconsin wins out and Ohio State and Michigan lose at least one game, the Badgers would share second place with Michigan and/or Ohio State

·         If Wisconsin wins out and Ohio State and Michigan lose out, the Badgers would take undisputed control of second place (not bad for a team that started 0-3 Big Ten)

·         If Ohio State and/or Michigan lose out, they could end up in a three way tie for third place with either Purdue or Indiana (assuming either Purdue or Indiana win out) and assuming Wisconsin wins out and takes second place

·         If Ohio State and Michigan lose out, they could end up in a four way tie for second place with Wisconsin (if Wisconsin splits) and either Purdue or Indiana win out

·         And of course, Michigan State could simply win the Big Ten title outright by winning at least one more game

The point is…with a mere two games remaining…the Big Ten season is far from over!!! Right Brother Gus??? (ha). And here is where it gets interesting…here are the remaining schedules for the Top 6 teams:

·         Spartans:             @ Indiana…OSU (home)

·         Ohio State:         @Northwestern…@MSU             (both Road games)

·         Michigan:            @Illinois…@Penn State                 (both Road games)

·         Wisconsin:          Minnesota…Illinois                          (both Home games)

·         Purdue:                Penn State…@Indiana

·         Indiana:                MSU…Purdue                                    (both Home games)

Inasmuch as Ohio State visits Michigan State…and Purdue visits Indiana…it is a certainty that two of those 4 teams will suffer at least one more loss.

The most favorable schedule belongs to Wisconsin who has two home games against bottom tier teams. On the other hand, Indiana has two home games but they will face two formidable top tier opponents.

The most ‘unfavorable’ schedule belongs to Ohio State followed by Michigan who both finish the season with consecutive road games …and if there is one absolute in Big Ten Basketball…‘Road Games’ are especially unkind to visiting teams.

Think about this, Michigan and Ohio State didn’t help themselves over the past weekend inasmuch as Senior Day gave them a decided advantage…and now…with diminished title hopes…their final road games will become especially daunting!

Let’s take a look at Ohio State.

The Buckeyes must travel to Evanston to play the Wildcats (17-11 overall and 7-9 Big Ten) and while it may seem like a mismatch on paper, make no mistake, the Wildcats are desperate to earn their ‘first ever’ trip to the NCAA tournament. From my perspective…I would be very apprehensive if I were the Buckeyes because the Wildcats have nothing to lose and they are hungry for an NCAA berth.

Thereafter, the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing to play the Spartans (24-5 overall and 13-3 Big Ten) on Senior Night and that’s a big problem.

If anyone has ever attended Senior Night at Breslin Center…then they are familiar with the electric atmosphere as Spartan faithful pay homage to their beloved Seniors (and the electricity rises to fever pitch when the Seniors plant a traditional kiss on the floor at Center Court).

By collegiate standards, it’s a love fest and for the most part, the Spartans don’t lose on Senior Night. Not to mention, the Spartans will have plenty of incentive inasmuch as they are seeking a #1 seed in the NCAA as well as their 7th outright Big Ten title under Tom Izzo. This game will be a major challenge for the Buckeyes on the road!

As for Michigan, they must go on the road to play Illinois (17-12 overall and 6-10 Big Ten). The Illini have enjoyed bright moments during this season with wins over Ohio State and Michigan State both at home…but otherwise the Illini have ‘curiously’ underachieved. It’s curious because the Illini have plenty of talent.

One ‘game changing’ player is Meyers Leonard who is arguably one of the best 7-foot Centers in the country. Leonard is a true freshman whom I intend to personally anoint as All American prior to his junior season (if not before). Want an indicator? 

Sunday night against Iowa, the tall…rangy Freshman was 7 of 13 (53%) from the field…8 of 8 (100%) from the stripe…hauled down 14 Rebounds…got 2 assists…2 Blocks…and 22 points in 36 minutes while posting a 65-54 win over the Hawkeyes.

As a true Freshman, Meyers Leonard is starting to play his best Basketball of the season and if I were Michigan, I would be especially fearful of that match up! Needless to say, trying to get a ‘W’ in Champaign will test the ‘will’ of the Wolverines because the Illini will be ‘desperate’ to improve their NCAA seed.

Thereafter, the Wolverines must travel to State College, PA to finish the season and if there is a single place in the country that affords the home team an advantage simply based upon the degree of ‘Travel’ difficulty for the visiting team…it would be traveling to State College, PA.

State College is located smack dab in the geographical center of Pennsylvania…geographically close to nowhere! It takes nearly a week of travel time to get there (in jest of course)…and needless to say, that is a decided advantage for Penn State…right JoPa? Sorry, I guess you can’t answer…no disrespect intended.

On paper, Penn State is not formidable because they only have 4 Big Ten wins but each win was on their home floor including a win versus Purdue!

In closing, if the question is…what about the Spartans? Their challenge is clear. They must play Indiana on the road (they beat Indiana at home)…and they must play Ohio State at home (they beat the Buckeyes in Columbus).

What else do the Spartans need to know? They know their opponents…they know the challenge…they control their destiny…and they are coached by the one of the most successful coaches in the country (and arguably ‘the’ most successful coach in the Big Ten).

If you ask me? Needing one win to capture an undisputed Big Ten title, I wouldn’t bet against Coach Izzo to grab his 7^th Big Ten title. Would you?

Destiny awaits….Good luck to all…Thank you for reading!

Spartans: in control of their destiny

Well my friends…the Spartan ‘Defense’ was running in high gear on Saturday night and that enabled the Spartans to OVERWHELM and dominate the Cornhuskers for a 62-34…28 point victory.

More importantly, there is a statistic that will live in infamy in Nebraska Basketball lore. The Spartans held the Cornhuskers to 15 points in the first half…and didn’t allow the Cornhuskers to crack the 20 point threshold until the 9:48 mark of the second half. That’s unbelievable. The Spartans ‘D’ stifled the Cornhuskers on every possession and kept them from running the floor.

Essentially, the Spartans turned the Huslers into a…one dimensional… ‘jump shooting’ team.

Let’s go to the film. The Spartans kept the Huskers on the perimeter throwing up ‘Jump Shots’ and in that aspect…the Cornhuskers fizzled. The Huskers only converted 14 of 48 (29%) from the field…and a meager 2 of 17 (12%) beyond the Arc.

So, you can add Nebraska to the list of Big Ten teams who have gotten overwhelmed by the Spartans this year including Iowa who was beaten 95-61 (34 point margin) and Purdue who was beaten 83-58 (25 point margin)

It would be fair to say, the Spartans undressed the beleaguered Cornhuskers and everyone except the ‘pop corn vendor’ got into the game. The Spartans deployed 15 players…8 players got double digit minutes…9 players scored…and 12 players got rebounds.

The Spartans shot  an impressive 23 of 39 (59%) from the field…9 of 18 (50%) beyond the Arc…70% from the stripe…and amassed 33 rebounds for a +13 rebound margin. About the only statistic the Cornhuskers had an advantage was personal fouls…14 to 12. Oops, I guess that’s not an advantage (said with a smile).

So now, the Spartans are 13-3 and sit atop the Big Ten with a two game advantage and only 2 Big Ten games to play. That means the Spartans are ensured of at least a share of the Big Ten title and are thg only Big Ten team who are in control of their destiny. One more win and the Spartans grab an undisputed title!

But it’s worth remembering, the Spartans were disregarded and curiously unranked by the so called experts prior to the season. Based upon last years dismal season, I can understand the Spartans wouldn't be ranked in the Top 10...or the Top 15...but they assuredly deserved a ranking within the Top 25 didn't they?.

If nothing else, the Spartans deserved a ranking simply based upon Coach Izzo's prodigious resume...but they weren't. Nevertheless, 29 games into this season the Spartans  are an impressive 24-5 overall…ranked #6 in the AP poll…and have more victories over RPI Top 50 teams (9) than any team in the country. Not bad for a team that started the season 0-2!

If you’re playing along at home…it’s worth noting that #3 Missouri was beaten by #4 Kansas over the weekend so the Spartans will arguably move up to #5 in the AP poll.

So, now there are only two games remaining and the Spartans travel to Bloomington on Tuesday to take on the Hoosiers. That seemed like a daunting task in mid January but the Hoosiers have cooled dramatically since that time. The Hoosiers are a solid 22-7 overall…9-7 Big Ten but the Hoosiers are only 4-2 in Big Ten since the beginning of February including losses to Michigan and Iowa.

Understandably, the Hoosiers are dangerous at home so the Spartans will need to do what they do best….play with discipline…and play with determination...for a full 40 minutes. But that’s what the Spartans do. They play with a purpose…they play as a Team…and they repeatedly demonstrate they are on a mission. And one more thing, there is a distinguishing characteristic of these Spartans, they are hungry, humble and most importatnly...the Spartans are quiet.

They do their talking on the Basketball floor…and isn’t that the mark of a Champion?

Destiny awaits! Tuesday game time is 7:00 PM at Assembly Hall…and weather is not expected to be a factor (said with a smile)!

Thank you for reading!

Spartans: Uniquely built for the tournaments!

With less than 3 weeks to play in the Big Ten regular season, it’s worth reflecting upon the Spartans victory versus Ohio State last Saturday in Columbus.

As you recall, the Spartans built a 35-25 half time lead and then dispatched of the former # 3 ranked Buckeyes 58-48 but more importantly the Buckeyes shot a dismal 14 of 53 (26%) from the Field…and a meager 2 of 15 (13%) beyond the Arc. Overall, the Buckeyes had minus 3 Rebounds…committed 15 Turnovers…while Jared Sullinger, generally regarded as one of the best and most efficient players in the country…committed 10 solo Turnovers.

If either team should have had a ‘cold’ night shooting on a cold winter night in Columbus…it should have been the visiting Spartans. And frankly, the Spartans didn’t shoot very well either...21 of 52 (40.4%) from the Field…and 4 of 16 (25%) from beyond the Arc but that’s not the story. The Story is why the Buckeyes shot so poorly and turned the ball over so frequently on their home floor? Was it poor Offense…or stifling Defense?

In my humble opinion, here is your answer!

The Spartans beat the Buckeyes with suffocating Defense and relentless rebounding…all compliments of a long bench. But you won’t hear that from the experts. The experts would rather write about ‘high arching’ jump shots from beyond the Arc…or back board rattling ‘throw downs’. Nevertheless, three aspects separate the Spartans from the national pack: auspicious Team Depth…suffocating Defense…and dominating Rebounding.

In Columbus, the Spartans deployed alternating waves of ‘fresh’ players that simply wore the Buckeyes down. Prior to the game, the Buckeyes were averaging more than 75 points per game but the Spartans held the Buckeyes to 48 points on the Buckeyes familiar home floor…or 27 points below their season average. Did that happen simply by accident? Or was there a catalyst?

It’s easy to write that the Buckeyes had a bad offensive night...but don’t buy it. The Buckeyes have a tremendous offense and they simply didn’t show up on their ‘home floor’ and forget how to shoot the ball. So, give credit to Ohio State…but more importantly…give credit to the Spartans suffocating ‘D’.

And give credit to the Spartans ‘long bench’. Once again, the Spartans played 10 players…8 players got double digit minutes…7 players scored…and 9 players got rebounds. Compare that to the Buckeyes who deployed a total of eight players but only 6 players got double digit minutes. That may not seem meaningful but when you  consider that Jared Sullinger was forced to play the entire 40 minutes while facing two formidable Spartan ‘Big Men’, then depth becomes a major talking point.

First, Sullinger was chasing 6’10” & 240# Adreian Payne around the paint…while Payne jumped, drove and tipped 15 points (and gathered 4 rebounds) in 20 minutes…and then Sullinger was bumped, blocked and bruised by 6’9” & 270# Derrick Nix who contributed 6 points (and gathered 1 rebound) in 19 minutes.

More importantly, Payne and Nix alternated every 6 minutes or so and consequently Sullinger was incapable of catching his breath. So, given those stats…it would be more than fair to say…Sullinger got beat down and frustrated while uncharacteristically committing 10 Turnovers…all the while complaining that he was getting ‘mugged’ down on the block.

Was Sullinger getting ‘mugged’? Maybe…maybe not. But, come on, this is the Big Ten…football on wood. Normally Sullinger doesn’t get ‘tag teamed’ and usually Sullinger is the one who does the ‘mugging’…but not on this night. Translation: Sullinger was worn down…stifled…and frustrated. He uncharacteristically complained last Saturday because he wasn’t in control of his game. Bottom line: Sullinger needed help but that didn’t happen and therein lies the story!

The so called experts have simplistically referred to it as a bad day at the office for the Buckeyes…an off night if you like. Yes indeed…that it was…an off night…but with the greatest of respect to the Buckeyes…the Spartan ‘D’ has been shutting down opposing offenses all year and they did the same to the Buckeyes last Saturday.

According to the most current ‘Strength of Schedule’ ranking, the Spartans have played the ’Third’ most difficult schedule in the country (behind only Duke and UConn), when you consider the Spartans have played North Carolina, Duke, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana…all of whom have been consistently ranked in the Top 25…and yet prior to the Ohio State game…the Spartan ‘D’ was limiting opponents to a meager 37.9% from the field…(#10 in the country…#2 Big Ten)…while achieving a dominating 10.8 Rebound Margin per game…(#3 in the country…#1 Big Ten). So let’s be honest…the Buckeyes didn’t simplistically have a ‘bad’ shooting night by themselves. The Spartans wore down the Buckeyes and stole their offensive rhythm!!!

And that’s what makes the Spartans uniquely built for the tournaments.

When the tournaments start, there is no ‘home field’ advantage…and the jump shot becomes an erstwhile friend. The jump shot may be a ‘deadly weapon’ during the regular season…on familiar trips…against familiar defenses…in familiar venues…but when the tournaments start…the erstwhile Jump Shot becomes a friend no more. Depth…Defense and Rebounding…become a team’s best friends in the tournaments and those three aspects, the Spartans have in abundance!!!

So welcome the Badgers to East Lansing tonight but regardless of the outcome…get ready for the tournaments…and when you pencil your tournament picks…save a spot in the Final Four for the Spartans!

And, by the way…you don’t owe me anything for that tip (ha)!

Reflections of Sunday: Spartans 64...Michigan 54

There was an overload of Super Bowl coverage yesterday so, I withheld my Spartan Blog until this morning.

If you watched the game between the Spartans and Wolverines on Sunday, then you know the final score wasn’t indicative of the Spartans dominance…and more importantly, a single stat tells ‘The’ story.

The most compelling stat of the game? Michigan collected 16 Rebounds as a team (no misprint) while Draymond Green of Michigan State collected 16 Rebounds in a solo effort! But wait…there’s more. The Spartans collected a total of 40 Rebounds including 28 Defensive Rebounds…and 12 Offensive Rebounds…which translates to an extraordinary 24 Rebound margin.

Let me repeat…24 Rebound Margin. That’s a staggering statistic. At any level of play (High School, College or Pros)…a plus 24 Rebound Margin transcends conventional Basketball thinking. Think about it? It’s nearly impossible to get a 24 Rebound margin in a 40 minute game. How is it possible to only gather 16 Rebounds while giving up 40? Let me know if you have an answer?

Needless to say, most of the statistics favored the Spartans but the Rebound Margin stands alone as the most telling stat.

Consequently, the outcome of the game was predictable. The Spartans were active on the floor and limited Michigan’s ability to penetrate the paint…and that relegated Michigan to becoming a ‘one dimensional’ perimeter team with a less than impressive result: 19 of 48 (39.6%) from the field…and 7 of 22 (31.8%) beyond the arc…and needless to say, those woeful statistics won’t win many Basketball games. It’s simple really, a team can’t win on jump shots alone. But Michigan tried.

And, as it relates to limiting Michigan opportunities in the paint, let’s give credit to where credit is due. The Spartan ‘Bigs’, namely Derrick Nix (6’9” and 270)…and Adreian Payne (6’10” & 240) took away the Wolverines inside opportunities. Payne and Nix aren’t flashy…and they don’t get big headlines…but when the Spartans capture a win, you can usually trace it back to great defensive work ‘down low’…compliments of Payne & Nix.

As for Michigan, I give them credit. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway are good players… but Michigan is woefully short on talent inasmuch as 7 players got playing time but only 6 players got double digit minutes (and that’s their normal rotation) while the Spartans played their usual ‘deep bench’ and 10 players got playing time…8 players got double digit minutes…9 players scored…and most importantly, 9 players collected Rebounds (and that’s a normal rotation for the Spartans).

Dominant Rebounding is no surprise for the Spartans given the fact they are #1 in Big Ten Rebound Margin…and #3 Nationally…and when it’s all said and done, the best teams usually have the best rebound stats! Rebound Margin alone is not a guarantee for winning basketball games, but it sets the tempo for the game. It sets up ‘high’ percentage shots…and it takes away scoring opportunities for an opponent.

In the future, Michigan has to get better ‘down low’ if they are intent on competing for the Big Ten title. Rebounding is the ‘heart and soul’ of Basketball and it’s tantamount to running between the tackles…or stopping the run in football. Games are won in the trenches in football…and games are won in the ‘paint’ in basketball. If you’re not attacking the basket then you don’t get to the line. The Spartans went to the line 20 times Sunday compared to 12 for Michigan and in that aspect, the Spartans outscored the Wolverines 14-9 on the most simplistic play in Basketball.

It is well advertised that Michigan has an impressive recruiting class coming to Ann Arbor next fall…including a Big Center…but good recruits alone won’t resolve a team’s inability to rebound and play ‘game changing’ Defense. The Wolverines will add two or three highly prized recruits…but they lose Zack Novak and Stu Douglass  to graduation…both of whom play nearly 40 minutes per game and collectively contribute 25% of ‘M’ scoring and 23% of ‘M’ rebounding. But, more importantly, Beilein must change his Basketball philosophy.

 It’s worth remembering, players ‘play’ in the manner they’re coached…but 5 years into his tenure in Ann Arbor, John Beilein has yet to demonstrate that his teams have an appetite or an ability to ‘crash’ the glass or dominate in the paint. I think John Beilein is a good guy but he has to change the demeanor of his teams from ‘outside’ to ‘inside’ if he hopes to compete for the Big Ten title.

Meanwhile, if you’re penciling in your favorites to arrive at the Final Four…don’t overlook the Spartans!

Spartans lose at Illinois (ugly...Ugly...UGLY)

Sometimes things go bad…and when they do…you accept your fate…and move on!

Such was the case last night. The Spartans lost one of the less memorable games of the Big Ten season to Illinois 42-41 last night in Champaign. Yes indeed…not a misprint…83 points total. If the Spartans didn’t play sooo poorly then Illinois should have lost this game because they were equally as miserable…but the Spartans did play that poorly. They shot a miserable 14 of 58 (24%) from the field…3 of 14 (21%) beyond the Arc…and stumbled their way to 16 Turnovers.

On the other hand, how bad was Illinois? Bad enough to allow the Spartans to get 26 Defensive Rebounds and a whopping 49 Rebounds total.

Let’s give credit to Illinois, they beat Ohio State a couple weeks ago…they have good talent…and the Illini are well coached…but not this game! Perhaps you could give credit to the respective Defenses who ‘shut’ down’ most chances, but I think I’ll give credit to where credit is due…a bad night for both teams! Did I mention Illinois shot 53% from the stripe?

At any measure, the loss is in the record books but there is a bigger issue for the Spartans. It was a bad night for Draymond Green! Green was hampered by the Flu prior to the game and was clearly out of sync but uncharacteristically challenged a foul so he got pulled from the game…then he got in the ‘doghouse’ when he challenged Coach Izzo for the pull…so Izzo withheld him from the start of the second half…then Green injured his knee shortly after Izzo put him back into the game.

So, by any measure, it was not a good night. Green logged 16 minutes and got a meager 5 points. For a player like Green who ranks in the Top 10 (prior to the game) in Big Ten Scoring…Rebounding…Assists…Blocks…and flying the team Airplane…his injury is a major concern.

Hopefully, Green will recover quickly because the Spartans hope to hold serve when Michigan visits Breslin next Sunday!