After two months of grinding Big Ten Basketball, the season is nearly over but if you think the last two games have little impact…then Lee Corso would say…not so fast my friends!
A lot can happen over the next two games with the prize being a share of the Big Ten title and/or better seeding for the NCAA tournament. For example, Ohio State and Michigan could possibly tie the Spartans for the Big Ten title but they could also fall in the other direction.
Ohio State and Michigan could slide to third and Wisconsin could take over sole possession of second place. Purdue could rise all the way from 6th to second . At the very minimum, a lot of Chess pieces could be moved around the board before the end of the season. Here’s a look at the Top 6 teams:
· Spartans 13-3
· Ohio State 11-5
· Michigan 11-5
· Wisconsin 10-6
· Indiana 9-7
· Purdue 9-7
Given the cluster of teams, there is only one certainty: the Spartans are ensured of at least a share of the Big Ten title but if the Spartans win one more game, they will grab an undisputed Big Ten title and in that case, there will be a mad scramble for the next 5 spots which will have a major impact on NCAA seeds.
I scripted a few possibilities. I don’t recommend you read all of the variables because it’s not exactly entertaining (pondering what ifs) but you might be surprised by the possibilities:
· If Ohio State and/or Michigan win out, they would share the Big Ten title with the Spartans assuming the Spartans lose both of their remaining games
· If Wisconsin wins out and Ohio State and Michigan lose at least one game, the Badgers would share second place with Michigan and/or Ohio State
· If Wisconsin wins out and Ohio State and Michigan lose out, the Badgers would take undisputed control of second place (not bad for a team that started 0-3 Big Ten)
· If Ohio State and/or Michigan lose out, they could end up in a three way tie for third place with either Purdue or Indiana (assuming either Purdue or Indiana win out) and assuming Wisconsin wins out and takes second place
· If Ohio State and Michigan lose out, they could end up in a four way tie for second place with Wisconsin (if Wisconsin splits) and either Purdue or Indiana win out
· And of course, Michigan State could simply win the Big Ten title outright by winning at least one more game
The point is…with a mere two games remaining…the Big Ten season is far from over!!! Right Brother Gus??? (ha). And here is where it gets interesting…here are the remaining schedules for the Top 6 teams:
· Spartans: @ Indiana…OSU (home)
· Ohio State: @Northwestern…@MSU (both Road games)
· Michigan: @Illinois…@Penn State (both Road games)
· Wisconsin: Minnesota…Illinois (both Home games)
· Purdue: Penn State…@Indiana
· Indiana: MSU…Purdue (both Home games)
Inasmuch as Ohio State visits Michigan State…and Purdue visits Indiana…it is a certainty that two of those 4 teams will suffer at least one more loss.
The most favorable schedule belongs to Wisconsin who has two home games against bottom tier teams. On the other hand, Indiana has two home games but they will face two formidable top tier opponents.
The most ‘unfavorable’ schedule belongs to Ohio State followed by Michigan who both finish the season with consecutive road games …and if there is one absolute in Big Ten Basketball…‘Road Games’ are especially unkind to visiting teams.
Think about this, Michigan and Ohio State didn’t help themselves over the past weekend inasmuch as Senior Day gave them a decided advantage…and now…with diminished title hopes…their final road games will become especially daunting!
Let’s take a look at Ohio State.
The Buckeyes must travel to Evanston to play the Wildcats (17-11 overall and 7-9 Big Ten) and while it may seem like a mismatch on paper, make no mistake, the Wildcats are desperate to earn their ‘first ever’ trip to the NCAA tournament. From my perspective…I would be very apprehensive if I were the Buckeyes because the Wildcats have nothing to lose and they are hungry for an NCAA berth.
Thereafter, the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing to play the Spartans (24-5 overall and 13-3 Big Ten) on Senior Night and that’s a big problem.
If anyone has ever attended Senior Night at Breslin Center…then they are familiar with the electric atmosphere as Spartan faithful pay homage to their beloved Seniors (and the electricity rises to fever pitch when the Seniors plant a traditional kiss on the floor at Center Court).
By collegiate standards, it’s a love fest and for the most part, the Spartans don’t lose on Senior Night. Not to mention, the Spartans will have plenty of incentive inasmuch as they are seeking a #1 seed in the NCAA as well as their 7th outright Big Ten title under Tom Izzo. This game will be a major challenge for the Buckeyes on the road!
As for Michigan, they must go on the road to play Illinois (17-12 overall and 6-10 Big Ten). The Illini have enjoyed bright moments during this season with wins over Ohio State and Michigan State both at home…but otherwise the Illini have ‘curiously’ underachieved. It’s curious because the Illini have plenty of talent.
One ‘game changing’ player is Meyers Leonard who is arguably one of the best 7-foot Centers in the country. Leonard is a true freshman whom I intend to personally anoint as All American prior to his junior season (if not before). Want an indicator?
Sunday night against Iowa, the tall…rangy Freshman was 7 of 13 (53%) from the field…8 of 8 (100%) from the stripe…hauled down 14 Rebounds…got 2 assists…2 Blocks…and 22 points in 36 minutes while posting a 65-54 win over the Hawkeyes.
As a true Freshman, Meyers Leonard is starting to play his best Basketball of the season and if I were Michigan, I would be especially fearful of that match up! Needless to say, trying to get a ‘W’ in Champaign will test the ‘will’ of the Wolverines because the Illini will be ‘desperate’ to improve their NCAA seed.
Thereafter, the Wolverines must travel to State College, PA to finish the season and if there is a single place in the country that affords the home team an advantage simply based upon the degree of ‘Travel’ difficulty for the visiting team…it would be traveling to State College, PA.
State College is located smack dab in the geographical center of Pennsylvania…geographically close to nowhere! It takes nearly a week of travel time to get there (in jest of course)…and needless to say, that is a decided advantage for Penn State…right JoPa? Sorry, I guess you can’t answer…no disrespect intended.
On paper, Penn State is not formidable because they only have 4 Big Ten wins but each win was on their home floor including a win versus Purdue!
In closing, if the question is…what about the Spartans? Their challenge is clear. They must play Indiana on the road (they beat Indiana at home)…and they must play Ohio State at home (they beat the Buckeyes in Columbus).
What else do the Spartans need to know? They know their opponents…they know the challenge…they control their destiny…and they are coached by the one of the most successful coaches in the country (and arguably ‘the’ most successful coach in the Big Ten).
If you ask me? Needing one win to capture an undisputed Big Ten title, I wouldn’t bet against Coach Izzo to grab his 7th Big Ten title. Would you?
Destiny awaits….Good luck to all…Thank you for reading!
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